Project Forecast Engine

Stop reporting one number you can't defend

"We forecast $46M" invites an argument. "We are 80% confident of coming in under $49M" ends one. The Forecast Engine produces P50 and P80 outturn and completion dates from the progress you have already earned — in Excel, with no macros and nothing to install.

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Six forecasts, one data entry

Enter progress once. Every forecast below recalculates from the same dataset, so your cost forecast and your date forecast can never disagree with each other.

1

Cost at completion

Three EAC methods side by side, because clients and auditors disagree about which one applies. Seeing all three is how you defend the one you pick.

EAC₁ = BAC / CPI
EAC₂ = AC + (BAC − EV) / (CPI × SPI)
EAC₃ = AC + (BAC − EV)
2

Completion date

Earned Schedule, not the naive SPI method. SPI always drifts back to 1.0 as a project finishes, so a late project reports as on time exactly when it matters most.

ES = t + (EV − PV_t) / (PV_t+1 − PV_t)
IEAC(t) = PD / SPI(t)
3

Cash flow

Monthly draw curve and cumulative S-curve, giving the peak funding requirement — the number that determines whether a profitable project still sinks you.

Peak funding = max(cumulative AC − cumulative receipts)
4

Resource forecast

Histogram by period with peak demand and over-allocation flags, so you find out you need 40 fitters in March while you can still recruit them.

Demand_t = Σ (remaining hours × allocation %)
5

Risk-adjusted range

Monte Carlo over 1,000 iterations producing P50, P80 and P90. This is the difference between "we forecast $46M" and "we are 80% confident of coming in under $49M".

P80 = PERCENTILE.INC(iterations, 0.8)
6

Productivity trend

Units per man-hour tracked over time and extrapolated forward, so the forecast reflects the rate you are actually achieving rather than the one you assumed.

Forecast hours = remaining units / trended rate

Why P80 changes the conversation

The same project, forecast two ways

A $42M construction project at month 9, running CPI 0.91 with three trades behind on productivity and an unagreed variation package.

Single-point EAC
$46.2M
P50
$46.8M
P80
$48.9M
Contingency gap
$2.1M
The single-point EAC of $46.2M is not wrong — it is just incomplete. It describes the middle of a distribution without saying how wide that distribution is. The $2.1M between P50 and P80 is the contingency conversation, and you cannot have it with one number. These are the figures the sample workbook actually produces — open it and press F9.

Eight industry packs

The engine is identical in every pack. The pack supplies the WBS, cost codes, risk register and milestone set for your sector — so it is useful the first time you open it, not after a fortnight of setup.

NuclearMulti-decade, regulator-gated ConstructionNEC4 valuation cycles Data CentresCost per MW, long-leads AirportsNight possessions, live ops OffshoreVessel rates, weather windows RailPossessions, GRIP/PACE stages Power T&DOutages, connections, consents Energy GenerationEscalation, grid dependency

Forecast Engine pricing

Engine only

$299
One-time purchase
  • All six forecast outputs
  • Monte Carlo P50 / P80 / P90
  • Generic WBS and cost codes
  • Free updates

Engine + all 8 packs

$499
Best value
  • Everything in Engine only
  • All eight industry packs
  • Sector WBS, rates and risks
  • Regulatory milestone sets
  • Priority updates

Single pack

$99
Added to the Engine
  • One industry of your choice
  • Sector WBS & cost codes
  • Preloaded risk register
  • Regulatory milestones

Forecasting questions

Because the forecasting maths does not change between a reactor and a runway. EAC is BAC/CPI everywhere. What changes is the WBS, the cost codes, the risks and the milestones — and that is content, not engineering. One engine means one set of formulas to trust and to fix.
No. It is a plain .xlsx using native formulas only. Macro-enabled workbooks are stripped by most corporate mail filters and blocked by default in Excel, which would make the file undeliverable.
Each uncertain input is sampled by inverse-transform from a triangular distribution across 1,000 pre-built iteration rows, then PERCENTILE.INC reads the P50, P80 and P90 off the results.
No, the Forecast Engine is standalone. They complement each other — the main tool tracks where you are, the engine forecasts where you will end up.
Yes. Individual packs are $99, or all eight for $499. Contractors working across sectors usually take the bundle.
The packs ship with placeholder ranges and a clear instruction to replace them with your own historic data. Your rates always beat a published average, and the tool is built to make swapping them easy.

Forecast with a range, not a guess

Six forecasts, eight industries, one workbook.