Data Centres Industry Pack

Data Centre Construction Cost & Schedule Forecasting

Data centre programmes are governed by long-lead equipment and commissioning gates, not by civils. A forecast built on trade progress will look healthy right up until the switchgear slips.

How the engine works

What breaks forecasts in data centres

The maths is the same everywhere. These are the sector-specific conditions that make a generic forecast wrong.

Long-lead equipment sets the date

Generators, chillers, UPS and switchgear carry lead times measured in quarters. Once ordered, no amount of site resource moves the date, and the whole programme keys off delivery.

Site productivity cannot recover a lead-time slip

Cost is measured per MW, not per m²

Buyers, funders and operators all think in $/MW of IT load. A forecast expressed in total cost alone cannot be benchmarked by anyone who matters.

The wrong denominator kills comparability

Commissioning L1–L5 is where programmes die

Integrated systems testing routinely uncovers issues that individual system tests passed. It is the least predictable phase and the one most often given a fixed duration.

L4/L5 needs a distribution, not a bar

Phased handover means partial revenue

Halls are handed over progressively. Forecasting a single completion date ignores the revenue timing that justifies the investment.

Per-hall dates drive the business case

Escalating power density mid-build

Client IT load requirements change during construction. Late density increases ripple through cooling, electrical distribution and floor loading.

A scope change disguised as a spec update

What's in the Data Centres pack

The engine is identical across industries. The pack is the content that makes it speak your sector's language from the first time you open it.

WBS skeleton

Shell & core
Electrical infrastructure
Mechanical & cooling
White space fit-out
Commissioning L1–L5
Handover by hall

Cost codes

$/MW IT load
Generators & fuel systems
UPS & battery
Chillers & CRAH units
Switchgear & busway

Risk register

Long-lead delivery slip
Grid connection delay
IST failures at L4/L5
Client density change
Commissioning agent availability

Gate milestones

Power-on / energisation
L1 factory acceptance
L3 individual systems
L4 integrated systems
L5 load bank & handover

Worked example

24MW colocation build, month 11 of 18

BAC $310M. EV $171M, AC $178M, PV $174M. Switchgear delivery has slipped 7 weeks; halls 3 and 4 handover is at risk.

CPI

0.96

$/MW forecast

$13.4M

P50 handover

Month 19

P80 handover

Month 21

Cost performance looks fine at 0.96 — the problem is entirely schedule. Two months of delayed handover on halls 3 and 4 is the real number, because it is revenue, not cost. A cost-only forecast would have reported this programme as healthy.

Illustrative figures, shown to demonstrate the method. Your numbers replace them.

Data Centres questions

Can it forecast per hall rather than per project?

Yes — each hall is a separate forecast unit with its own handover date, which is what the revenue model needs.

Does it include $/MW benchmarks?

The pack ships with placeholder benchmark ranges. Replace them with your own build data — your numbers beat any published average.

How is commissioning modelled?

L4 and L5 carry triangular distributions rather than fixed durations, because integrated testing is where the variance actually lives.

Does it track grid connection?

As an external dependency milestone with its own risk profile, since it is rarely within your control.