Construction forecasting breaks on cashflow timing and productivity assumptions, not on arithmetic. The Construction pack models the valuation cycle, retention and trade productivity that actually govern outturn.
The maths is the same everywhere. These are the sector-specific conditions that make a generic forecast wrong.
Under NEC4 or JCT, work is done weeks before it is valued and paid. Raw actual cost against earned value produces a CPI that swings with the payment cycle rather than with performance.
Unadjusted CPI misleads every monthA project can be on budget and still run out of money. Peak funding requirement, not final cost, is what sinks contractors.
Forecast the draw curve, not just the totalBricklaying, steel fixing and M&E first fix all carry productivity ranges wide enough to move outturn by double digits, and they compound across trades.
Single-rate assumptions understate the rangeA fixed number of weather days in the programme is a guess dressed as a plan. Actual exposure depends on season, trade and location.
Fixed allowances are wrong in both directionsInstructed but unagreed variations sit in limbo — real cost, uncertain recovery. Excluding them understates forecast cost; including them at full value overstates recovery.
Both treatments are wrong without a probabilityThe engine is identical across industries. The pack is the content that makes it speak your sector's language from the first time you open it.
BAC $42M. EV $17.8M, AC $19.6M, PV $18.9M. Three trades are behind on productivity and a variation package worth $1.4M is instructed but unagreed.
Illustrative figures, shown to demonstrate the method. Your numbers replace them.
Forecast Engine $299 · Construction pack $99 · all eight packs $499
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