Construction Industry Pack

Construction Cost & Schedule Forecasting

Construction forecasting breaks on cashflow timing and productivity assumptions, not on arithmetic. The Construction pack models the valuation cycle, retention and trade productivity that actually govern outturn.

How the engine works

What breaks forecasts in construction

The maths is the same everywhere. These are the sector-specific conditions that make a generic forecast wrong.

Valuation lag distorts CPI

Under NEC4 or JCT, work is done weeks before it is valued and paid. Raw actual cost against earned value produces a CPI that swings with the payment cycle rather than with performance.

Unadjusted CPI misleads every month

Retention and cashflow are not the same as cost

A project can be on budget and still run out of money. Peak funding requirement, not final cost, is what sinks contractors.

Forecast the draw curve, not just the total

Trade productivity varies more than estimates admit

Bricklaying, steel fixing and M&E first fix all carry productivity ranges wide enough to move outturn by double digits, and they compound across trades.

Single-rate assumptions understate the range

Weather is a distribution, not an allowance

A fixed number of weather days in the programme is a guess dressed as a plan. Actual exposure depends on season, trade and location.

Fixed allowances are wrong in both directions

Variations arrive faster than they are agreed

Instructed but unagreed variations sit in limbo — real cost, uncertain recovery. Excluding them understates forecast cost; including them at full value overstates recovery.

Both treatments are wrong without a probability

What's in the Construction pack

The engine is identical across industries. The pack is the content that makes it speak your sector's language from the first time you open it.

WBS skeleton

  • Enabling & site setup
  • Substructure
  • Superstructure & frame
  • Envelope & cladding
  • M&E first and second fix
  • Fit-out & handover

Cost codes

  • Labour by trade
  • Materials & waste
  • Plant hire & standing time
  • Subcontract packages
  • Preliminaries & site overhead

Risk register

  • Ground conditions worse than survey
  • Subcontractor insolvency
  • Material price escalation
  • Design information late
  • Weather beyond allowance

Contract milestones

  • NEC4 assessment dates
  • Sectional completion
  • Practical completion
  • Retention release
  • Defects liability expiry

Worked example

Mixed-use build, month 9 of 20

BAC $42M. EV $17.8M, AC $19.6M, PV $18.9M. Three trades are behind on productivity and a variation package worth $1.4M is instructed but unagreed.

CPI
0.91
EAC
$46.2M
Peak funding
$6.5M
P80 outturn
$48.9M
Outturn is forecast $4.2M over — but the number that matters this quarter is the $6.5M peak funding requirement. Most contractors who fail do so holding a profitable contract they could not cash-flow.

Illustrative figures, shown to demonstrate the method. Your numbers replace them.

Construction questions

The valuation cycle is configurable — assessment interval, payment lag and retention percentage — which covers both forms.
Yes. Each subcontract package can carry its own CPI and forecast, rolling up to the project.
They are entered with a recovery probability, so forecast revenue is weighted rather than counted in full or excluded entirely.
It produces the figures and curves. Formatting into your client template is a copy-paste, not an export button.

Other industry packs

Forecast construction with numbers you can defend

Forecast Engine $299 · Construction pack $99 · all eight packs $499