Offshore, the vessel is the clock. Cost accrues per day whether you are working or waiting on weather, which makes the weather-window distribution the single most important input to any credible forecast.
The maths is the same everywhere. These are the sector-specific conditions that make a generic forecast wrong.
An installation vessel costs the same whether it is installing or riding out a swell. Cost is driven by days on charter, not by work completed.
Waiting on weather is full-rate costOperability depends on significant wave height limits against seasonal metocean data. A deterministic programme assuming average conditions will be wrong in one direction or the other, every time.
This is the definitive P50/P80 problemMobilisation costs land in single large hits. A campaign split by an unplanned demob can absorb the entire contingency in one event.
One extra demob can exceed contingencyA delay does not cost one vessel — it costs the whole spread: installation vessel, support craft, crew transfer, ROV. Every day multiplies across the fleet.
Multiply daily burn by the whole spreadMiss the weather season and the remaining scope moves a year, not a month. There is no compressing your way out of a winter.
A slipped season is a slipped yearThe engine is identical across industries. The pack is the content that makes it speak your sector's language from the first time you open it.
BAC $184M. EV $61M, AC $73M, PV $67M. Weather downtime is running at 34% against a 26% baseline assumption, with 9 weeks of the season remaining.
Illustrative figures, shown to demonstrate the method. Your numbers replace them.
Forecast Engine $299 · Offshore pack $99 · all eight packs $499
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