Energy Generation Industry Pack

Energy Generation Project Forecasting

Generation projects live or die on commodity escalation, long-lead plant and a grid connection you do not control. The forecast has to hold all three at once, over a multi-year build.

How the engine works

What breaks forecasts in energy generation

The maths is the same everywhere. These are the sector-specific conditions that make a generic forecast wrong.

Commodity and fuel escalation over a long build

Steel, copper and fuel prices move materially across a four-year programme. A forecast in today's prices is not a forecast.

Escalation must be modelled, not ignored

Grid connection is an external dependency

The connection date is set by the network operator. Finishing early simply means an asset that sits idle, earning nothing.

Early completion has no value without grid

Turbine and BOP long-leads set the critical path

Turbines, generators and balance-of-plant carry lead times of eighteen months or more. Procurement, not construction, is the programme.

Procurement is the critical path

Availability ramp defies the business case

Plant rarely reaches design output on day one. The ramp period between commissioning and full availability is habitually underestimated.

Revenue lags completion by months

Subsidy and offtake deadlines are absolute

CfD, ROC or PPA milestones carry cliff-edge consequences. Missing the date can remove the revenue basis of the whole investment.

A missed date can void the business case

What's in the Energy Generation pack

The engine is identical across industries. The pack is the content that makes it speak your sector's language from the first time you open it.

WBS skeleton

  • Development & consenting
  • Civils & foundations
  • Plant procurement
  • Erection & installation
  • Grid connection works
  • Commissioning & ramp

Cost codes

  • Turbine / generator supply
  • Balance of plant
  • Steel & copper indexed
  • Fuel & commissioning energy
  • Grid connection charges

Risk register

  • Commodity escalation above index
  • Grid connection delayed
  • Turbine delivery slip
  • Commissioning underperformance
  • Subsidy deadline missed

Commercial milestones

  • Financial close
  • Notice to proceed
  • Plant delivery
  • First synchronisation
  • Commercial operation date

Worked example

CCGT plant, month 22 of 40

BAC $520M. EV $268M, AC $287M, PV $276M. Steel is tracking 9% above the baseline index and the grid connection has moved four weeks later.

CPI
0.93
EAC
$559M
P80 outturn
$588M
P80 COD
+9 weeks
Nine weeks past the commercial operation date is not nine weeks of cost — it is a quarter of lost generation revenue and, if it crosses the offtake deadline, a materially different investment case. COD is the number the board needs, not EAC.

Illustrative figures, shown to demonstrate the method. Your numbers replace them.

Energy Generation questions

Per cost code against an index you set, so steel and copper can escalate at different rates and both flow into the forecast.
Yes — ramp is forecast separately from completion, because revenue follows availability rather than handover.
As a hard external milestone. Completion earlier than the connection date is shown as idle asset time, not as float.
Yes. Solar, wind and storage use the same structure with different plant codes and ramp profiles.

Other industry packs

Forecast energy generation with numbers you can defend

Forecast Engine $299 · Energy Generation pack $99 · all eight packs $499