Construction Industry Pack

Construction Cost & Schedule Forecasting

Construction forecasting breaks on cashflow timing and productivity assumptions, not on arithmetic. The Construction pack models the valuation cycle, retention and trade productivity that actually govern outturn.

How the engine works
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Typical project-controls challenges in construction

The method is the same everywhere. These are the sector conditions that make a generic approach wrong, and what each one means for how you control the project.

Valuation lag distorts CPI

Under NEC4 or JCT, work is done weeks before it is valued and paid. Raw actual cost against earned value produces a CPI that swings with the payment cycle rather than with performance.

Unadjusted CPI misleads every month

Retention and cashflow are not the same as cost

A project can be on budget and still run out of money. Peak funding requirement, not final cost, is what sinks contractors.

Forecast the draw curve, not just the total

Trade productivity varies more than estimates admit

Bricklaying, steel fixing and M&E first fix all carry productivity ranges wide enough to move outturn by double digits, and they compound across trades.

Single-rate assumptions understate the range

Weather is a distribution, not an allowance

A fixed number of weather days in the programme is a guess dressed as a plan. Actual exposure depends on season, trade and location.

Fixed allowances are wrong in both directions

Variations arrive faster than they are agreed

Instructed but unagreed variations sit in limbo, real cost, uncertain recovery. Excluding them understates forecast cost; including them at full value overstates recovery.

Both treatments are wrong without a probability

Which capabilities apply

Every tool below is a separate workbook that works on its own. These are the ones construction teams tend to reach for, and what each one answers.

Analyse

  • Whether the programme you were sent is built properly, before you rely on it
  • Where the critical path really runs, and how much float is protecting it
Schedule Quality Analyser

Control

  • Cost and schedule performance against the baseline, in CPI and SPI
  • Change and risk exposure on one register, not in email
The core suite

Forecast

  • Outturn cost and completion date as a range, not a single number
  • The contingency needed to be 80% confident, not 50%
Forecast Engine

Measure

  • Progress claimed against rules of credit rather than opinion
  • An update block you can paste straight back into P6
Progress Measurement System

Contract & claims

  • Whether a submitted programme meets NEC4 clause 31.2
  • Productivity loss measured against an unimpacted period
NEC4 Compliance Disruption & Productivity Loss

Sustainability

  • Capital carbon baseline and forecast against target
  • Evidence trail for PAS 2080 assurance
Carbon & PAS 2080

How it runs, month to month

  1. Export two tables from P6 or Microsoft Project. An activity list and a relationship list. Nothing in your scheduling tool changes.
  2. Paste them in. The shaded cells are the only inputs. Everything else is formula-driven.
  3. Check the programme is sound. The schedule quality scorecard runs the DCMA checks and tells you what to fix before you forecast from it.
  4. Enter the period progress and cost. Earned value, actual cost and planned value by period.
  5. Read the forecast and issue the report. CPI, SPI, EAC and the P50 to P80 range, with the assumptions recorded alongside them.

What's in the Construction edition

The engine is identical across industries. The edition supplies the content that makes it speak your sector's language, so it is useful the first time you open it rather than after a fortnight of setup.

WBS skeleton

  • Enabling & site setup
  • Substructure
  • Superstructure & frame
  • Envelope & cladding
  • M&E first and second fix
  • Fit-out & handover

Cost codes

  • Labour by trade
  • Materials & waste
  • Plant hire & standing time
  • Subcontract packages
  • Preliminaries & site overhead

Risk register

  • Ground conditions worse than survey
  • Subcontractor insolvency
  • Material price escalation
  • Design information late
  • Weather beyond allowance

Contract milestones

  • NEC4 assessment dates
  • Sectional completion
  • Practical completion
  • Retention release
  • Defects liability expiry

Worked example

Mixed-use build, month 9 of 20

BAC £42M. EV £17.8M, AC £19.6M, PV £18.9M. Three trades are behind on productivity and a variation package worth £1.4M is instructed but unagreed.

CPI
0.91
EAC
£46.2M
Peak funding
£6.5M
P80 outturn
£48.9M
Outturn is forecast £4.2M over. But the number that matters this quarter is the £6.5M peak funding requirement. Most contractors who fail do so holding a profitable contract they could not cash-flow.

Illustrative figures, shown to demonstrate the method. Your numbers replace them.

Reports and outputs

Each of these is a sheet in the workbook. They recalculate when you enter the period progress, so there is nothing to assemble at month end.

Cost forecast

  • Three EAC methods side by side
  • CPI, SPI, cost and schedule variance
  • Variance at completion and TCPI

Monte Carlo

  • 1,000 iterations, no macros
  • P50, P80 and P90 outturn cost
  • Forecast duration and delay against baseline

Earned Schedule

  • Time-based schedule performance
  • Forecast completion date
  • Stays honest late in the job, unlike SPI

Cash flow and resources

  • Payment lag and retention modelled
  • Peak funding requirement
  • Resource forecast by period

Productivity

  • Trend against planned rate
  • Early warning before CPI moves

Assumptions and audit

  • Every distribution, its source and date
  • The record that defends the number

Construction questions

The valuation cycle is configurable. Assessment interval, payment lag and retention percentage, which covers both forms.
Yes. Each subcontract package can carry its own CPI and forecast, rolling up to the project.
They are entered with a recovery probability, so forecast revenue is weighted rather than counted in full or excluded entirely.
It produces the figures and curves. Formatting into your client template is a copy-paste, not an export button.

Other industry editions

NuclearMulti-decade, regulator-gated ConstructionNEC4 valuation cycles Data CentresCost per MW, long-leads AirportsNight possessions, live ops OffshoreVessel rates, weather windows RailPossessions, GRIP/PACE stages Power T&DOutages, connections, consents Energy GenerationEscalation, grid dependency

Forecast construction with numbers you can defend

Construction Edition £349, all eight editions £999, complete suite £1,399