Decommissioning forecasts fail differently to construction forecasts. The work is discovered rather than designed, the regulator gates progress, and the programme outlives the people who baselined it. The Nuclear pack forecasts on that basis.
The method is the same everywhere. These are the sector conditions that make a generic approach wrong, and what each one means for how you control the project.
You are forecasting the cost of removing material whose extent and activity you do not yet fully know. Early-phase estimates carry uncertainty ranges that would be unacceptable anywhere else, and a single-point EAC hides it entirely.
A point estimate is indefensible. You need a rangeONR permissioning, safety case acceptance and waste consignment approvals sit on the critical path but behave nothing like activities. They have no productivity rate and cannot be accelerated with resource.
CPM treats them as compressible. They are not.A twenty-year programme holds contingency that must be released on an agreed profile. Forecasting against remaining contingency, not just remaining budget, is what the NDA and Treasury actually scrutinise.
Drawdown profile is a reporting requirementCost is dominated by waste stream, container count and disposal route, ILW versus LLW versus VLLW. Forecasting on labour hours alone misses the majority of the spend.
Cost per m³ by stream, not cost per man-hourOver a multi-decade programme, the assumptions behind the original estimate are lost unless they were recorded as data. Every forecast challenge becomes archaeology.
Undocumented assumptions cannot be defendedEvery tool below is a separate workbook that works on its own. These are the ones nuclear teams tend to reach for, and what each one answers.
The engine is identical across industries. The edition supplies the content that makes it speak your sector's language, so it is useful the first time you open it rather than after a fortnight of setup.
BAC £88M. To date: EV £27.4M, AC £31.2M, PV £29.1M. Characterisation has found 18% more contaminated concrete than the baseline assumed.
Illustrative figures, shown to demonstrate the method. Your numbers replace them.
Each of these is a sheet in the workbook. They recalculate when you enter the period progress, so there is nothing to assemble at month end.
Nuclear Edition £349, all eight editions £999, complete suite £1,399
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